Extreme weather deaths in Europe ‘could increase 50-fold by next century’

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Extreme weather deaths have been predicted to significantly increase in Europe within the coming century. Lack of action as to how greenhouse emissions can be reduced, effects protection of citizens as they are severely affected by weather disasters. Studies have been carried out to determine where disasters relating to weather could happen and where they are to be expected in future times.

Studies have shown high death numbers that are associated with extreme weather and southern Europe has been listed as one of the areas that have a higher chance of being affected.

Extreme heat warnings

The estimates that have been provided have proven to be very shocking and alarming especially if no measures are taken. Government and their subsequent policies should therefore be created and systems designed that can be provided for adaptation measures

Quality predictions have been made and used to determine at what location the weather disasters are most likely to occur and how often the disasters are likely to occur. Some of the weather related disasters include floods, heat waves and wildfires. The weather related disasters are currently placed at 7 in number.

Analysis was done on vast amounts of data from various years to determine the susceptibility of human beings and the population changes owing to the weather disasters. The number of people affected is expected to increase compared to earlier years, with a significant increase in probable deaths.

Wildfires in southern Europe

The rise in wildfires with emphasis on Europe is expected and attributed to heat waves. Additional deaths are attributed to the heat waves. The increase in frequency of such disasters as well as how effective the disasters are is blamed on occurrences relating to climate change. Growth in population and migration has also been associated to population growth and migration.

Factors such as climate change are however considered less influential to such disasters as compared to climate changes though it was previously vice versa. It was however emphasized that that indirect effects of the disasters such as cardiovascular and mental diseases have increased with their result proving severe. Importance of the Paris climate agreement has been emphasized while the areas of city planning as well and public awareness have been made important.

Counter arguments

One of the professors found in the field of risk and disaster reduction has mentioned that the study has taken on a simple approach. It is further added that there is an apparent difficulty when identifying what number of deaths are in fact associated to weather related disasters by the end of the current century because of the numerous factors that are yet to be included but would affect the data that had been previously collected.

Doubt was further shown in the results. This is because studies done related people exposed to the disaster directly to the deaths when trying to find out vulnerability. It is further argued that the positioning of a person does not particularly identify if one dies relating the event or not. Another professor has however, disagreed with the above argument by pointing out and identifying the study as a thought experiment. The professor still welcomed the research as it would be beneficial in the quest for knowledge.

Analysis that has been done has been found to majorly focus on extreme events. It has been assumed in such a study that there has not been a reduction in human vulnerability in the process of adaptation. This brings about further emphasis on how human actions that are not controlled can bring about major changes to weather conditions.

On a positive note, the risks posed by extreme weather has initiated discussions and debate about whether construction of houses should continue in and around the vulnerable forest areas, and what regulations and laws should be enacted to keep people from harm’s way. The construction industry is also looking into ways of coming up with products and materials more resistant to fire and other extreme weather risks.


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